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1 Aug 2014

NYMEX crude prices down in Asia as deamnd lags global supply

crude tips

                      Crude oil prices continued to fall in Asia on Friday with demand seen lagging global supplies though geopolitical events offer a floor.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate Crude oil for delivery in September traded at $97.77 a barrel, down 0.41%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.96 a barrel and a high of $99.84 a barrel.
Brent oil on ICE Futures Europe fell 0.5%, to $106.02 a barrel. Prices fell 5.6% this month and are down 4.3% so far this year.
OPEC countries pumped more oil in July than in June, according to Reuters data, which sent oil futures dropping on fears the world is awash in crude.
Reuters reported that supply from OPEC member states averaged 30.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up from 29.92 million bpd in June.
Fears that conflicts in the Middle East were going to disrupt supply never panned out, which softened oil prices despite consensus that the global economy continues to recovery, the U.S. especially. - investing.com

Gold Heads for Longest Stretch of Weekly Losses Since September


                Gold headed for a third weekly loss in the longest run of declines since September as U.S. employment data may add to signs that the world’s largest economy is gaining traction.
Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,279.30 an ounce, the lowest level since June 19, and was at $1,283.69 at 11:29 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal declined 3.4 percent in July to post the biggest monthly loss this year as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index completed the largest advance since May 2013.
Gold slumped 28 percent last year on speculation that the Federal Reserve would reduce monthly bond purchases, which were cut this week for a sixth time. Data today may show U.S. employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth month after a report yesterday showed claims ofunemployment benefits in the past month sank to an eight-year low. Bullion failed to rally this week even as weaker corporate results sent global equities tumbling amid Argentina’s debt default.
“Gold prices continued to pull back as stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy damped demand for safety plays,” said Sarah Xie, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Wing Fung Financial Group Ltd. “Investors are reluctant to take big positions ahead of the U.S. jobs data.”
Gold for December delivery climbed 0.1 percent to $1,284.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest bullion-backed exchange traded-product, were unchanged for a fifth day yesterday at 801.8 metric tons.

U.S. Payrolls

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held gains after rising yesterday to the highest level since March 20. While the average monthly advance in U.S. payrolls so far in 2014 has been about 231,000, Fed policy makers said in their statement this week that the labor market still has plenty of room for improvement.
Palladium for immediate delivery traded at $873.82 an ounce from $872.88 yesterday, when prices capped a sixth month of gains in the longest such run since January 2011. The metal climbed to $889.75 on July 17, the highest since February 2001, on concern that Russian supplies may be curbed on sanctions.
Palladium, used mainly in catalytic converters, rose 22 percent this year as output was disrupted by a five-month mine strike that ended in June in South Africa, the largest producer after Russia, while demand from the auto industry increased.
Spot silver was at $20.395 an ounce from $20.3962 yesterday, when the metal completed a monthly decline. Platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,465.81 an ounce after dropping in July for the first month in four. - Bloomberg

31 Jul 2014

WTI Drops Below $100 as U.S. Fuel Supplies Rise; Brent Declines


                           West Texas Intermediate dropped for a fourth day and slipped below $100 as gasoline stockpiles rose and demand declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent decreased in London.
Futures fell as much as 1.1 percent in New York. Gasoline supplies expanded by 365,000 barrels last week to 218.2 million, the highest level in four months, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday. Average consumption shrank 0.5 percent over the past four weeks to thelowest since May, even as the country’s peak driving season started with the Memorial Day holiday on May 26.
“This should be a period of peak demand,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “The price action is telling us the world does not have an issue with the supply of crude. Oil at $100 is a big level, and I don’t think it will give it up so quickly.”
WTI for September delivery slid as much as $1.11 to $99.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $99.63 at 1:58 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 0.7 percent to $100.27 yesterday, the lowest close since July 15. The volume of all futures traded was about 7 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are down 5.5 percent in July, the most in nine months.
Brent for September settlement fell as much as 63 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $105.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.64 to WTI, from $6.24 yesterday.

Crude Stockpiles

WTI slid last week as gasoline stockpiles rose the most in six months to the highest level since March, fueling speculation of slowing demand. Consumption of the fuel during the past four weeks shrank to an average 8.95 million barrels a day, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.
Crude inventories dropped 3.7 million barrels to 367.4 million in the week ended July 25, said the EIA. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, decreased by 924,000 barrels to 17.9 million, the lowest since October 2008.
Stockpiles of distillates, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, expanded by 789,000 barrels to 126.7 million, the highest level since September 2013.

Gold Heads for Longest Drop in 2 Months as U.S. Economy Improves


                   Gold retreated for a fourth day to head for a monthly decline as further signs that the U.S. recovery is gaining momentum strengthened the case for higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.
Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $1,294.24 an ounce, and was at $1,294.97 at 11:28 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. A fourth day of losses would be the longest streak since June. Bullion dropped 2.4 percent in July, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for the biggest monthly rise since May 2013, as data including gross domestic product beat estimates.
Gold sank 28 percent last year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would trim monthly bond buying, which it did for a sixth time yesterday. Policy makers also said in their July 30 statement that slack in the labor market persisted even as the economy was picking up, repeating that they will keep interest rates low for a considerable time after ending asset purchases. Data tomorrow may show U.S. employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth month.

“Positive U.S. economic data is good for the dollar and bad for gold,” said Lv Jie, an analyst at Cinda Futures Co., a unit of one of four funds inChina created to buy bad debt from banks. “Geopolitical concerns still exist for support but the longer-term downtrend is unchanged as the U.S. moves toward tighter monetary policy.”
Bullion rebounded 7.8 percent this year as unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East boosted haven demand. Gaza’s main public market was hit by Israeli air strikes yesterday as the U.S. and European Union escalated sanctions against Russia.

ETP Inflow

Gold for December delivery traded at $1,296 an ounce on the Comex in New York from $1,296.90. U.S. exchange-traded products backed by precious metals took in $536.81 million this month, as of July 29, after a net outflow of $319 million in the six months to June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Palladium for immediate delivery traded at $880.76 an ounce from $880.35 yesterday, poised for a sixth month of gains in the longest such run since January 2011. The metal rallied to $889.75 on July 17, the highest price since February 2001, amid concern sanctions against Russia may curb supplies from the world’s largest producer.
Palladium, mainly used in catalytic converters, advanced 23 percent this year as output was disrupted by a five-month mine strike that ended in June in South Africa, the second-largest producer, while usage in cars increased.
Spot silver fell 0.2 percent to $20.5712 an ounce, heading for a 2.1 percent decline this month. Platinum was at $1,478.69 an ounce from $1,479.63 yesterday, set for the first monthly drop in four. - Bloomberg

US economy grows 4% in second quarter

            
               The US economy grew at an annual rate of 4 per cent in the second quarter, according to an initial Government estimate on Wednesday.
The figure marks a turnaround after gross domestic product registered its first decline in three years in the previous quarter.
The rebound in the April-June period reflected gains in consumer spending and business inventory. Consumer spending rose 2.5 per cent, spurred by purchases of durable goods after growing just 1.2 per cent in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
The boost in second quarter GDP outpaced economists’ expectations. A survey of economists by Bloomberg news agency had predicted 3 per cent growth in the period.
Updated data showed first quarter growth fell a revised 2.1 per cent, less than the 2.9 per cent drop the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last month.
The steep first quarter decline was attributed to an extremely hard winter that kept consumer spending down along with declines in private inventory investment and state and local Government spending.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week lowered its 2014 growth forecast for the US economy, pointing to the extremely weak first quarter.
GDP would increase by a “disappointing” 1.7 per cent over the year, the Washington-headquartered IMF said in a report.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said it would cut its monthly purchases of government-linked bonds to $25 billion, down from the $35 billion level set at the central bank’s last meeting in June.
The latest cut continues a policy launched in January of regularly trimming the stimulus programme. Until then, the Fed had been buying $85 billion of bonds every month.
The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the unprecedented, near-zero level in place since December 2008.
The GDP figures released on Wednesday are an initial estimate based on incomplete data and the Government is due to release more complete figures next month. - thehindubusinessline.com

28 Jul 2014

Zinc glistens with promise


               Zinc prices have risen sharply in the last few months. Since March, spot prices of the metal on the LME have rallied 21 per cent. The metal now trades at $2,392 a tonne The market for zinc had run into deficit in 2013 after being in surplus for six consecutive years. According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), there was a deficit of 91,000 tonnes in the metal in 2013. This deficit has already widened to 1,07,000 tonnes between January and April this year.
The domestic zinc futures contract, which moves in tandem with LME zinc, is also up about 21 per cent since March this year. The uptrend in MCX Zinc is likely to continue. Investors can consider buying the contract and holding it for gains in the medium term.
Supply constraints
The supply deficit was due to drawdown in mine production. Mine output, which increased 3.8 per cent in 2012, rose by just 0.5 per cent in 2013.
Canada’s two major mines, Brunswick and Perseverance, had shut their operations last year. Together they contributed nearly 3 per cent to the global mine production in 2012.
Supply constraints in the zinc market may remain for some more time to come. Australia’s Century mine, the world’s second largest zinc mine, is expected to close its operations by 2016. Although there have been reports of new mines coming up in the next one-two years, they may not make up for the loss of closed mines, say market experts.
However, while supply will be tight, various projections indicate that demand for zinc will only increase in the coming years. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc consumption to go up over 4 per cent to 13.58 million tonnes this year. With global zinc production (from mines) to increase by only 2.8 per cent to 13.57 million tonnes, a deficit of 1,17,000 tonnes is anticipated.
Lower production and increasing demand could aid further rise in zinc price in the coming months.
Outlook
For the medium term, the outlook is bullish for the MCX Zinc (₹144 a kg) futures contract. The price action from August 2013 to June 2014 shows formation of a triangle. The contract has witnessed a bullish breakout of this triangle pattern this month and also breached a key resistance at ₹139 last week.
Though currently it is in another resistance zone, the downside could be limited if a pullback is seen from this level. A rally to ₹160, the target level of the triangle pattern, looks likely in the medium term. Supports for the contract are at ₹139, ₹134 and ₹129.
Traders with a medium-term perspective can consider taking long positions in MCX Zinc futures contract. If the contract reverses lower from ₹145, accumulate more long positions near ₹139 and ₹135. The contract’s price chart says that the downside will be limited to ₹134. An immediate decline below this level looks less probable at the moment. Stop-loss can be kept at ₹128 for the target of ₹160.
The medium-term outlook will turn negative only if the contract records a strong close below ₹129.
The ensuing target on such a break will be ₹123 and ₹110 — the 55- and 200-week moving average support levels, respectively.
For the short term, the MCX Zinc futures contract has a significant resistance near the current levels at ₹145. Since the contract has risen sharply in a short span of time, there is a high probability for this resistance to trigger a short-term correction in the contract. A reversal from ₹145 can pull the contract lower to ₹139 initially and then to ₹137 — the 21-day moving average.
A further break below this level can drag the contract to ₹134 in the short term. On the other hand, if the contract manages to surpass this hurdle at ₹145, it can extend the current rally to ₹149. The next key short-term resistance for the contract is at ₹149.5 which is the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. - thehindubusinessline.com

Asia Stocks Rise as H Shares Head for Bull; Soybeans Gain


                          Asian stocks rose, with a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong heading toward a bull market, while Treasuries and oil slipped as investors await data on U.S. services before the Federal Reserve meets this week. Soybeans and corn rallied.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.3 percent by 12:33 p.m. in Tokyo, following last week’s 1.4 percent advance. The Hang SengChina Enterprises Index climbed to 11,105.70, more than 20 percent above a March 20 closing low, while trading volume in Shanghai surged. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.1 percent and the yield on 10-year U.S. notes climbed one basis point after the equity benchmark retreated from a record. Oil in New York and London dropped at least 0.4 percent. Soybean and corn futures jumped at least 0.9 percent.
U.S. reports on services activity and pending home sales are due before the Fed meets to discuss monetary policy, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week rising yields may spur a retreat in global stocks and bonds over the next three months. Chinese industrial-company profits jumped the most last month since September, data yesterday showed. Israel resumed its offensive against Hamas militants in the Gaza Stripafter a lull in fighting, while the U.S. said it has photos of Russia shelling into Ukraine.
“Sentiment has turned in favor of growth and cheap valuations in the Chinese market,” said Khiem Do, who helps oversee about $60 billion as the Hong Kong-based head of Asian multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset Management Ltd. The shares have “been lagging for a long time so they’re catching up with world markets. The Fed has communicated to the market that the first Fed-fund rate hike will be more like next year than this year, so should they change their mind then that would be quite negative.”

Asian Valuations

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 1 percent today, after it jumped 5.3 percent last week, the most since March. The Hang Seng Index advanced 1 percent while the Shanghai (SHCOMP) Composite Index surged 2.1 percent, with the number of transactions about 170 percent above the 30-day average for the time of day.
The gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong trades at 7.7 times estimated earnings, compared with 13.6 times for MSCI’s Asia-Pacific measure. The S&P 500 is at 16.6 times.
Profits at industrial companies in Asia’s largest economy increased by 17.9 percent in June from a year earlier, after gaining 8.9 percent in May, data from China’s statistics bureau yesterday showed. It was the biggest gain since an 18.4 percent climb in September of last year and came after a private gauge of Chinese manufacturing advanced to an 18-month high, data last week showed.

Price Gap

The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index climbed 1.7 percent to 91.65, signaling a narrowing gap between the Hong Kong and mainland share prices of companies with dual listings. A link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong bourses will start from Oct. 13, the National Business Daily said, citing an unidentified brokerage.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) was little changed in Sydney, while South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.6 percent. Markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are closed for holidays.
Goldman Sachs cut its rating on stocks to neutral, the equivalent of hold, for the next three months, according to a quarterly research report from its portfolio strategy group July 25. The bank also lowered corporate credit to underweight and predicted U.S. government bond yields will increase.

U.S. Notes

Amazon.com Inc. drove U.S. stock declines July 25, sliding almost 10 percent after reporting the widest loss since 2012, distracting investors from an earnings season where 79 percent of S&P 500 members have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates. The benchmark U.S. equity gauge fell 0.5 percent to 1,978.34 July 25, declining for the first time in four days.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.48 percent after slipping four basis points July 25. Australian bonds due in a decade paid 3.42 percent, after rates rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, last week.
The gap between rates on 30-year Treasury notes and five-year debt narrowed to the least since 2009 last week as uncertainty over whether the U.S. economic recovery is on a strong footing vied with concern that the Fed may raise rates earlier than previously anticipated.
The Treasury will auction $29 billion in two-year securities today, $35 billion in five-year debt tomorrow and $29 billion in seven-year bonds July 30. It will also sell $15 billion in two-year floating-rate notes July 30.
Employers probably added 231,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in July, after a 288,000 increase in June, according to 69 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg before Aug. 1 reports.

Copper, Lead

The Markit Economics composite and service industries purchasing managers’ indexes for the U.S. are due today, along with data on pending home sales. An update on second-quarter gross domestic product is scheduled for July 30, with the FOMC meeting July 29-30.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 0.5 percent to $7,090 a ton. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. said July 25 that it will resume full operations in Indonesia at its Grasberg copper operation, the world’s third-largest, and plans to restart exports next month after resolving a dispute with the government.
Lead on the LME rose as much as 0.8 percent to $2,284 a ton, heading for the highest close this year. The metal gained 3.7 percent last week, the biggest advance since January. Aluminum was up 0.7 percent to $2,010.50 a ton. - Bloomberg

Asia Stocks Rise as H Shares Head for Bull; Soybeans Gain

Asia

                      Asian stocks rose, with a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong heading toward a bull market, while Treasuries and oil slipped as investors await data on U.S. services before the Federal Reserve meets this week. Soybeans and corn rallied.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.3 percent by 12:33 p.m. in Tokyo, following last week’s 1.4 percent advance. The Hang SengChina Enterprises Index climbed to 11,105.70, more than 20 percent above a March 20 closing low, while trading volume in Shanghai surged. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.1 percent and the yield on 10-year U.S. notes climbed one basis point after the equity benchmark retreated from a record. Oil in New York and London dropped at least 0.4 percent. Soybean and corn futures jumped at least 0.9 percent.
U.S. reports on services activity and pending home sales are due before the Fed meets to discuss monetary policy, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week rising yields may spur a retreat in global stocks and bonds over the next three months. Chinese industrial-company profits jumped the most last month since September, data yesterday showed. Israel resumed its offensive against Hamas militants in the Gaza Stripafter a lull in fighting, while the U.S. said it has photos of Russia shelling into Ukraine.
“Sentiment has turned in favor of growth and cheap valuations in the Chinese market,” said Khiem Do, who helps oversee about $60 billion as the Hong Kong-based head of Asian multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset Management Ltd. The shares have “been lagging for a long time so they’re catching up with world markets. The Fed has communicated to the market that the first Fed-fund rate hike will be more like next year than this year, so should they change their mind then that would be quite negative.”

Asian Valuations

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 1 percent today, after it jumped 5.3 percent last week, the most since March. The Hang Seng Index advanced 1 percent while the Shanghai (SHCOMP) Composite Index surged 2.1 percent, with the number of transactions about 170 percent above the 30-day average for the time of day.
The gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong trades at 7.7 times estimated earnings, compared with 13.6 times for MSCI’s Asia-Pacific measure. The S&P 500 is at 16.6 times.
Profits at industrial companies in Asia’s largest economy increased by 17.9 percent in June from a year earlier, after gaining 8.9 percent in May, data from China’s statistics bureau yesterday showed. It was the biggest gain since an 18.4 percent climb in September of last year and came after a private gauge of Chinese manufacturing advanced to an 18-month high, data last week showed.

Price Gap

The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index climbed 1.7 percent to 91.65, signaling a narrowing gap between the Hong Kong and mainland share prices of companies with dual listings. A link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong bourses will start from Oct. 13, the National Business Daily said, citing an unidentified brokerage.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) was little changed in Sydney, while South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.6 percent. Markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are closed for holidays.
Goldman Sachs cut its rating on stocks to neutral, the equivalent of hold, for the next three months, according to a quarterly research report from its portfolio strategy group July 25. The bank also lowered corporate credit to underweight and predicted U.S. government bond yields will increase.

U.S. Notes

Amazon.com Inc. drove U.S. stock declines July 25, sliding almost 10 percent after reporting the widest loss since 2012, distracting investors from an earnings season where 79 percent of S&P 500 members have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates. The benchmark U.S. equity gauge fell 0.5 percent to 1,978.34 July 25, declining for the first time in four days.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.48 percent after slipping four basis points July 25. Australian bonds due in a decade paid 3.42 percent, after rates rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, last week.
The gap between rates on 30-year Treasury notes and five-year debt narrowed to the least since 2009 last week as uncertainty over whether the U.S. economic recovery is on a strong footing vied with concern that the Fed may raise rates earlier than previously anticipated.
The Treasury will auction $29 billion in two-year securities today, $35 billion in five-year debt tomorrow and $29 billion in seven-year bonds July 30. It will also sell $15 billion in two-year floating-rate notes July 30.
Employers probably added 231,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in July, after a 288,000 increase in June, according to 69 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg before Aug. 1 reports.

Copper, Lead

The Markit Economics composite and service industries purchasing managers’ indexes for the U.S. are due today, along with data on pending home sales. An update on second-quarter gross domestic product is scheduled for July 30, with the FOMC meeting July 29-30.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 0.5 percent to $7,090 a ton. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. said July 25 that it will resume full operations in Indonesia at its Grasberg copper operation, the world’s third-largest, and plans to restart exports next month after resolving a dispute with the government.
Lead on the LME rose as much as 0.8 percent to $2,284 a ton, heading for the highest close this year. The metal gained 3.7 percent last week, the biggest advance since January. Aluminum was up 0.7 percent to $2,010.50 a ton. - Bloomberg

Copper Holds Losses as Freeport Set to Resume Indonesia Exports


mcx copper
                   Copper dropped for a second day after Freeport-McMoRan Inc. received approval from Indonesia to resume exports from its Grasberg mine.
The metal for delivery in three months fell as much as 0.5 percent to $7,090 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and traded at $7,123 at 10:36 a.m. in Hong Kong. Copper has lost 3.2 percent since the start of the year.
Freeport plans to resume copper concentrate exports from Indonesia in August, the company said in a statement Friday. The company had reduced operations by about half at the Grasberg mine, the third largest in the world, after the government introduced restrictions in January to encourage local raw-material processing.
“The exports of concentrates will now be priced in and that’s why prices are down,” Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Asset Management Inc., said by phone from Tokyo. “We don’t know yet how much of an impact it will have on actual production on metals.”
Copper futures for September in New York was little changed to $3.242 a pound, while the contract for the same month in Shanghai dropped 0.5 percent to 50,570 yuan ($8,173) a ton.
On the LME, aluminum, zinc and lead climbed, while nickel fell. Tin hadn’t traded.
Tin shipments from Indonesia, the largest exporter, are set to contract the most in seven months in July, Agung Nugroho, corporate secretary at PT Timah, said July 23.

Gold Price Start The Week Higher But Analysts See Volatility On Horizon

gold tips

                    Gold prices are starting the week on a positive note but analysts are expecting prices to remain volatile with significant economic events looming on the horizon.
Comex August gold opened the Sunday North American evening/Monday Asian session at $1,307.60 an ounce, up from Friday’s pit close of $1,303.30 an ounce. As of 8:45p.m. EDT, August gold was trading at $1,305.30 an ounce, relatively unchanged from Friday’s close.
Electronic trading of Comex September silver futures opened Sunday evening/Monday morning at $20.715 an ounce, slightly up from Friday’s pit close of $20.636 an ounce; as of 8:15 p.m. EDT, September silver was at $20.740 an ounce.
Although gold prices are back above $1,300 after hitting a four-week low earlier last week, analysts at HSBC said they are expecting to see choppy markets during the week, with the scheduled FOMC and U.S. jobs numbers out on Friday. 
“Gold price volatility is likely to pick-up next week with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 29-30 July and the July nonfarm payrolls data to be released on 1 August,” the analysts said in a report published late Friday.
Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone said in a research note published Sunday afternoon that gold could find some support early in the week as markets react to continued turmoil in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. He also said that a potential default by Argentina, which could come by Thursday, should keep investors on edge and boost gold demand.
However, he added strong economic data later in the week could help create some positive investor sentiment, which would be good for equity markets and bad for gold prices.
Analysts at ANZ Bank are expecting gold to struggle as geopolitical events have started to lose their impact on the gold market.
“We don't expect the latest Middle East tension to be a significant driver of prices over an extended period,” they said in their report published Sunday evening.
Physical demand, which has helped support gold prices in the last appears to be losing some momentum, Meir also noted in his report.
“In the physical markets, there was an outflow of 3.6 tons from the SPDR Gold Trust as of last Thursday,” he said. “China’s net overseas purchases of gold through Hong Kong fell to a 17-month low in June, sliding to 40.54 tons, from 52.60 tons in May and 104.6 tons in the year-ago period.” - kitco.com